This year, the China Instrument and Meter Industry Association pointed out in the "12th Five-year Development Plan for Instruments and Meter Industry" that the market demand has changed rapidly and the product structure has been adjusted urgently. In particular, the country has vigorously promoted energy-saving emission reduction and green economy, modern manufacturing, clean energy, and large Special industries such as aircrafts, ocean engineering, and smart grids, urban rail transit, and people's livelihoods have provided a wide range of market opportunities for the instrumentation industry. The industry's traditional service market, such as thermal power, metallurgy, and other industries, has slowed down. The market has a large demand, many opportunities, and dramatic changes. It is very difficult for the industry to adjust its structure and level.

Next year, the growth rate of petrochemical industry's growth rate is slowing down. Now, the beginning of the year is nearing completion, and the petrochemical and steel industries that our instrumentation industry serves also appear to have a less positive signal. For example, on November 24, the autumn report of China's industrial economy running in 2011 released jointly by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences showed that from January to October, the value-added of the petrochemical industry increased by 14.5% year-on-year, faster than the scale. Above the growth rate of industrial added value. However, at the same time, the report predicts that due to the adverse effects of the downstream industry's declining demand for petrochemical products and rising energy-saving and emission-reduction pressures, the growth rate of China's petrochemical industry will gradually slow down next year. Under the guidance of many factors, the instrumentation industry will face structural inflection points.

1) The issue of excess capacity shows where the steel industry is going? After several years of rapid development, China's steel industry is now peaking, and the problem of overcapacity has gradually emerged. At the 7th Bohai Rim Steel Market Forum held recently, relevant persons from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s steel demand will enter the top of the peak arc, about 800 million tons, and the industry will show a low growth rate and low profitability. The running trend. Improving steel standards and accelerating product upgrades will be an important task for the steel industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

2) Analyze the phenomenon of low-level repeated production in the instrumentation industry. There is still a huge gap between the domestic instrumentation industry and foreign countries, such as the lack of key core technologies, low level of duplication, the stability and reliability of products cannot be fundamentally resolved, and imports are still heavily dependent on imports for high-end precision instruments. Development has caused adverse effects, and the low level of repetitive production of instruments and meters is particularly prominent.

3) Selected for 2011 major technical equipment instruments. In order to increase the level of innovation and development of equipment manufacturing industry, foster strategic emerging industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and meet the needs of major national economic and national key construction projects for major technological equipment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has completed the “major innovation in major technology and equipment”. Preparation of the Guidance Catalog (2011 Edition, Consultation Draft).

4) The total installed capacity of electricity exceeded 10 billion kilowatts at the end of October. Tan Rongji, director of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, disclosed that as of the end of October this year, the total installed capacity of power generation in the country has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and it is expected to reach 1.04 billion kilowatts in the whole year. Tan Rongji said at the ABB Power World Forum today that although the total installed capacity has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, the growth rate is still lower than the growth rate of total electricity consumption. Therefore, if the contradictions between coal and electricity are not resolved next year and hydropower continues to weaken, The electricity supply will continue to be tight.

In the next five years, China’s market demand for various types of instruments and meters is large, mainly:

1. Industrial Automation Instrumentation and Control Systems At present, the operation of the national economy is in a special period. While maintaining sustained, rapid, and healthy development, we must increase infrastructure, basic industries, agriculture, real estate, and high-tech fields. Investment. Therefore, in the coming period, various departments of the national economy will need to build a number of major engineering projects. At the same time, there are a large number of enterprises that need to carry out technological transformation in order to improve product quality and increase economic efficiency to maintain strong social competitiveness. In view of the general trend of economic development, there will be a greater social demand for industrial automation instrumentation and control systems. In the next five years, the average annual growth rate will reach 15% or more.

In 2003, the power industry realized an additional installed capacity of 30 million kilowatts. In 2004, the new installed capacity is expected to reach 40 million kilowatts. In the next five years, the power industry will maintain an annual installed capacity of 40 million kilowatts. The new project is estimated to be industrial automation. The demand for instrumentation and control systems has increased by 15% annually. At present, most of the petrochemical systems use imported products. With the improvement of the reliability of domestic systems, they will gain a certain market share. It is estimated that demand will increase at least 5% annually. In 2003, the metallurgical industry produced 222 million tons of steel, an annual increase of 21.9%, steel production of 241 million tons, an annual increase of 25.3%, ten types of non-ferrous metals increased by 19.1%, and alumina increased by 11.2%. The current state's overheating control of the metallurgical industry is for sustainable development. In the next five years, it is estimated that at least a 15% annual demand level can be maintained. Large-scale ports, building materials, light industry, and a number of new projects in the next five years, it is estimated that the demand for these industries will increase by more than 10% annually. The field of environmental protection is one of the priorities for the state to support development during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” and is a new area for automation instrumentation and control systems; other market requirements such as agricultural modernization, building automation, warehouse automation, and urban transport automation are all new. The growth hotspot.

The task of technological transformation of industrial enterprises in China is quite arduous. In the next five years, there will still be a group of small and medium-sized generating units below 200,000 kilowatts, more than 50 medium-sized ethylene plants, 70 oil refineries, more than 500 heating furnaces, and more than 200,000 industrial units. Boilers and so on need to carry out technological transformation, most of them want to improve the level of automation, to update the original analog instruments with new digital automation instruments.

2. Scientific Instruments Scientific instruments are classified according to the original mechanical system instruments and meters, including optical instruments, testing machines and laboratory instruments, in addition to various analytical instruments. Optical instruments mainly include various microscopes (biological microscopes, embodied microscopes, electron microscopes, etc.), geodetic surveying instruments (theodolites, level instruments, etc.), optical metrology instruments (tool microscopes, projectors, angle measuring instruments, and optical instruments attached to machine tools, etc.). Physical optical instruments (spectrometers, light meters, spectrophotometers, monochromators, polarimeters, refractometers, etc.) and optical test instruments. The testing machine mainly includes various metal material testing machines, non-metal material testing machines, non-destructive flaw detectors and dynamic balancing machines. Laboratory instruments include precision scales, drying ovens, vacuum instruments, strain gauges, environmental testing instruments, calorimeters and acoustic instruments. The following are described in four parts: analytical instruments, optical instruments, testing machines and laboratory instruments.

(1) Analytical Instruments China's imports of analytical instrument products have remained high for many years. According to customs statistics, the total value of physical and chemical analysis instruments imported by China in 2003 was 1.19 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 44.6% over 2002. It shows that there is a big gap between domestic products in the level of technology, variety, quality, degree of automation, intelligence and completeness, etc., compared with the level of similar products in the world. It also shows that the demand for high-level analytical instruments is increasing.

The main imported products include mass spectrometers, nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometers, chromatographs, chromatogram mass spectrometers, plasma spectrometers, sewage monitors, gas and smoke monitors, and high-performance fluorescence spectrometers. From the analysis of the performance level of imported products, the proportions of medium and high-grade products were 55% and 45% respectively. With China's use of microelectronics and computer technology and new processes, new materials to improve the level of domestic analytical instruments, the increase in imports will gradually reduce.

It is predicted that in the next five years, the demand for major user departments such as petroleum, chemical, metallurgy and electric power will require 60% of the mid-range complete sets of analytical instruments in the late 1990s, 25% of low-grade analytical instruments, and 15 high-grade analytical instruments. %. National and corporate research institutions and technology centers need digital, intelligent, and highly automated analytical instruments. In the field of biomedicine, large hospitals and research institutes require analytical instruments that are highly reliable, intelligent, and highly automated. Small and medium-sized hospitals mainly need medium and low-end products. The atmospheric and sewage monitoring systems and systems needed in the environmental protection field account for 65% of medium and low-grade products, 35% of medium-to-high-end products, and 35% of low-grade products, 50% of mid-range products, and high-end products for other applications such as light industry and textiles. 15%.

China's analytical instrumentation is the fastest growing type of instrument in scientific instruments. The average annual growth rate of analytical instrument sales during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period exceeded 30%. At present, with the rapid development of the national economy, the continuous strengthening of scientific research, the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, and the accession to the WTO, many domestic industries are gradually in line with international standards. With the on-line analysis of product quality in industrial production, food safety, and the environment are toxic and harmful. The rapid detection of pollutants on site and the importance of life sciences can predict that the domestic demand for analytical instruments will continue to grow rapidly in the next five years.

(2) Optical instruments Optical instruments are widely used in various fields of the national economy and people's lives. At present, the supply and demand conditions of optical instruments can be summarized as follows: the number of products produced is large, the increase is significant, and supply and demand are basically in balance. Some of the middle- and low-end products have oversupply, while high-end products have fewer varieties and are short of products, and there is a clear gap with the performance of foreign products. In 2003, the sales volume of domestic optical instruments reached 12.95 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 41.2%. In 2003, the import volume of optical instruments reached 1.69 billion US dollars, and the annual growth rate was as high as 125.2%.

It is estimated that by 2008, the demand for optical instruments will reach 4 million units, of which the output of binoculars and astronomical telescopes will reach 2 million units. The product structure is that the demand for popular middle- and low-end products is greater than the demand for high-end and mid-range products; the demand for mature products is greater than that of newly-developed products; the demand for brand-name products is better than the demand for ordinary products. Biological microscopes, stereo microscopes, theodolites, leveling instruments, projectors, visible spectrophotometers, UV-visible spectrophotometers, atomic absorption spectrophotometers, Abbe refractometers, binoculars, and astronomical telescopes Larger series of products.

(3) Test machine The testing machine has been characterized by a large amount of products in the domestic market for many years, such as hydraulic universal testing machines, hardness meters and other conventional products. However, in recent years, there has been an increasing demand for electronic, digital, and automotive- and aerospace-specific destructive and non-destructive equipment such as electronic universal testing machines, electro-hydraulic servo testing machines, high-frequency fatigue testing machines, and digital hardness testers. . In the future, the proportion of test machines facing computerization, intelligence, digitalization, multi-functionalization, and mechatronics products will increase significantly, and the demand for complete sets of equipment such as special products, various on-line inspections, and quality control will greatly increase. rising.

Since the late 1980s to date, the technology of foreign tester products has been updated more rapidly, and its potential functions, long-term stability, and operating characteristics far surpass those of China's products, and 1/4 of the country's products are still blank; Control the penetration of foreign products into the Chinese test machine market. In 2003, the sales volume of homemade testers reached 843 million yuan, and the annual growth rate was 6.7%. In 2003, the import value of testing machines reached 203 million US dollars and the annual growth rate reached 21.3%.

The total demand of the testing machine to the domestic market in 2008 will reach more than 70,000 units, of which the electromechanical integration products will account for 50 to 60%. Among them, there are about 18,500 sets of metal testing machines (sets), 17,500 non-metal testing machines (sets), 4,500 process testing machines (sets), 2,000 deformation testing machines (sets), and 6,000 balancing machines (sets). There are 1000 sets of vibration table and impact table, 25000 sets of non-destructive testing instruments and 1500 sets of automobile balancer.

(4) Demand for high-end and middle-range experimental equipment has increased rapidly in the domestic market of laboratory equipment, and demand for low-grade products has grown steadily. With the rapid development of microcomputers, the computerized and modularized design of large and medium-sized complete sets of equipment and the development of network control technologies have increased the demand for intelligent products for laboratory instruments. In the next five years, it is estimated that the annual demand will accurately weigh about 22,000 sets of balance instruments; environmental testing equipment will be about 25,000 sets (including drying boxes); the number of calorimeters in thermal instruments will be about 800 sets; medium-sized test of power test instruments The annual demand for the system is about 400 sets, the annual demand for small instruments is over 25,000 sets, the annual demand for acoustics and vibration instruments is 5,000 sets; the annual demand for low-speed large-capacity and high-speed and large-capacity products in laboratory centrifuges is about 250 sets; low-speed, table-top centrifugal The annual demand for aircraft is about 1900 units.

3, medical equipment China has 1.3 billion people, more than 310,000 medical and health institutions, medical equipment has a vast market. As China's economy enters a relatively comfortable life from food and clothing, people’s living standards and medical conditions have improved significantly. China has become one of the ten emerging markets for medical devices worldwide and has become the largest market in Asia except Japan.

As China’s reform and opening up continue to deepen, first of all, community health services will be further expanded, coupled with further improvement of the vast majority of rural medical conditions, objectively, the demand for large-scale conventional diagnostic and treatment equipment will increase. Second, China's population has approached 1.3 billion. The proportion of the population over the age of 65 has exceeded 6% of the entire population, and it has entered an aging society, thus making the total demand of the medical instrument market in China higher than that of the international market. Third, China's common tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases are the diseases with the highest mortality. However, infectious diseases such as hepatitis and local diseases such as schistosomiasis still pose a serious threat to people's health. Therefore, our disease spectrum is also positive. In the phase of transition from developing countries to developed countries, more and more reliable and reliable medical instruments are required to meet market supply. Fourth, with the gradual implementation of the medical insurance system for urban employees, the medical institutions will gradually shift to a clear division of labor, and the number of comprehensive all-round hospitals will be curbed. On this basis, it is predicted that the general diagnosis and treatment equipment corresponding to the basic diagnosis and treatment projects in the next five years will have a relatively large growth rate, and the growth rate of high-end medical equipment will decline. In 2003, the sales volume of domestic medical equipment exceeded 7.8 billion yuan, and the annual growth rate was 9.8%. In 2003, the import value of medical instruments reached 993 million US dollars and the annual growth rate was as high as 228%. The main types of medical equipment imported include X-ray diagnostic instruments, nuclear magnetic resonance imaging instruments, patient monitors, and electrocardiogram recorders. The specific demand for medical instruments for the next five years is predicted to be:

(1) Variants with a growth rate of more than 20% include: Conventional medical diagnosis and treatment instruments (2) Growth rate of 10 to 15%: electrocardiograph, bedside monitor, black and white B-mode ultrasound scanner, general-purpose X-ray diagnostic machine , ventilator, anesthesia machine, endoscope, surgical shadowless lamp and so on.

(3) The varieties that remained basically flat were: X-CT, MRI, and color B ultrasound.

(4) Prediction of negative growth: X-ray stereotactic treatment systems, gamma knives, etc.

4. Electronic and electrical measuring instruments (1) Electronic measuring instruments The domestic electronic measuring instruments market has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2003, the sales of domestic enterprises was about 2.8 billion yuan, and the annual growth rate was 22.4%. In 2003, electronic measuring instruments were imported. The amount reached US$1.005 billion and the annual growth rate reached 26.7%. During the "10th Five-Year Plan" period, the country has raised the development of the information industry to a strategic height, and informatization has led to industrialization and become an important opportunity for the development of the information industry. The basic means for the development, production, and maintenance of the information industry are electronic measuring instruments, so that electronic measuring instruments for information products will be predicted to have greater development and will maintain an annual growth rate of 20% in the next five years. By 2008, electronic measuring instruments will be manufactured in China. Sales are expected to reach more than 7 billion yuan.

In addition, the rapid development of household electrical appliances in China, such as the development and large-scale production of digital televisions, DVDs, and multimedia products, will bring greater development needs to electronic measuring instruments for home appliances.

(2) Electrical measurement instrumentation After several decades of development, the electrical instrumentation instrumentation industry has formed a certain scale of production and capability. The product has reached a certain level. Bulk products can basically meet the needs of the domestic market. Its market share is 95%. the above. During the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, the market increased the demand for high-overload, long-life, electronic, and digital products, and at the same time required product standardization, serialization, generalization, and a good performance-to-price ratio. Among them, the demand for inductive watt-hour meters will gradually transition to 25-30 years of long-life, more than 6 times the overload capacity meter, and the demand for electronic watt-hour meters will increase further. At the same time, the use of centralized automatic meter reading system for each user to implement remote meter reading is a development trend. In 2003, the sales volume of domestic electrical measuring instruments and meters enterprises reached 11.566 billion yuan, and the annual growth rate was 35.9%. In 2003, the import value of electrical measuring instruments and meters reached 215 million US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 40.1%. In the next 3 to 5 years, the market demand for electrical measuring instruments and meters will still increase, and the annual demand for electrical instruments and meters will exceed 60 million sets (sets). Among them, there are 48 million electric meter products, 7 million electric meters, 2.5 million portable electric meters, 1.5 million digital meters, and 1 million other meters. The demand structure of each product is also changing. The proportion of electronic meter in meter products will gradually increase, and the proportion of electronic meter will exceed 40% by 2008; the technology of installed meter, portable meter and digital meter The content will also increase and the product level will continue to increase. Therefore, in the next 3 to 5 years, although the total annual product demand will not change much, the total sales will continue to increase. It is expected that in the next 3 to 5 years, the sales of the entire electrical instrumentation products will still increase by 10% each year, of which the demand for the power sector accounts for 90% and the demand for other departments accounts for 10%.

5. Other types of instruments and meters Since China's instrumentation technology and equipment are in addition to the machinery industry, the status quo is more than 20 national departments and large group companies, it is difficult to make a more comprehensive forecast of the domestic market demand for other types of measuring instruments and meters. However, according to the overall operating situation of China's national economy and the analysis of sales trends and growth rates of the instrumentation market in 2003, it can be predicted that the special equipment measuring instrument categories with a development speed of more than 20% in the next five years include: automotive-specific instruments and special instruments for environmental measurement. Special Instruments for Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Special Instruments for Geological Exploration and Earthquake Prediction, Nuclear Radiation Measurement Instruments, Commercial Quality Inspection Instruments, Entry-Exit Inspection, and Quarantine Instruments.

In view of strengthening environmental protection law enforcement, accelerating the pace of environmental protection construction, increasing investment in environmental protection construction, and fostering the need for a new growth point in the national economy as an environmental protection industry, China has more than 50,000 environmental monitoring stations, more than 18,000 key polluting enterprises, and a large number of towns and cities. Sewage treatment and corporate wastewater treatment this huge market, the future of environmental protection instrumentation industry product market will have a substantial increase. According to incomplete statistics, in 2003, the sales volume of domestic special instruments for environmental monitoring was 1.056 billion yuan, and the annual growth rate was 33%. It is estimated that by 2005 it will increase to 2 billion yuan, and by 2010 it will exceed 6 billion yuan. This shows that its market prospects are very broad. In the next five years, China will need a large number of environmental quality monitoring instruments and automatic monitoring systems; monitoring systems for flue gas analysis instruments represented by coal-fired power stations or boilers; surface water environmental quality inspection instruments and monitoring systems; urban sewage treatment plants and high concentrations Organic waste water represents the pollution source monitoring instrument and automatic control system.